World wine consumption is expected to reach a record $ 224.5 billion in 2021, according to annual forecasts that trade show organizer Vinexpo has just made public. The five-year study, conducted with IWSR, states that the dynamism of the United States and China should offset the sluggishness of the European market.
Each year, the study conducted by Vinexpo, Bordeaux’s organizer of international wine and spirits fairs, with the International Wine and Spirit Research (IWSR), sheds light on trends in wine consumption and gives the perilous exercise of the prospective with a horizon of 5 years. What does the latest version say, made public a few days ago?
“In 10 years, between 2011 and 2021, the value of the wine market will increase by 40%, for a marketed volume of 2.66 billion 9-liter cases,” said Vinexpo and IWSR. the two most powerful economies in the world are driving the recovery, with growth in consumption offsetting declines in other countries, particularly in Europe. ”
World wine consumption is expected to reach a record $ 224.5 billion in 2021, up from $ 180.6 billion in 2016.
The United States already represents the largest wine market with more than $ 36 billion in 2017. A status that should be confirmed since the country should record a growth of more than 25% by 2021 and then exceed the 45 billions of dollars. At the same time, China will become the world’s second-largest market by value.
“China’s consumption is expected to increase by more than a third over the next five years to $ 23 billion and reach a volume of 192 million cases, compared to the value of the Chinese wine market. , 24 billion dollars with a leap of 8 million cases in 2016, growth driven exclusively by the quiet wine, “note Vinexpo and IWSR.
In terms of consumer trends, the global interest in sparkling wines is confirmed by the Prosecco craze. Italian wine, which makes a considerable breakthrough, is expected to exceed champagne and calva by 2021 with consumption equivalent to 40 million cases. The United Kingdom, a major consumer of sparkling wines, and the United States should play an important role in this phenomenon. Vinexpo and IWSR estimate that the decline in champagne in Europe (-4 points) should be offset by emerging countries.
In the range of still wines, the trend “drink less but better” seems to anchor for good. The study states that premium wines should boost global still wine consumption: “The premium segment (wines sold between $ 10 and $ 20) is expected to grow by more than 60 million cases during this period. $ 5 to $ 9.99) will show growth of just under 32 million cases, and super-premiums of just 5 million cases, the biggest losses being for wines under $ 5, where overall category is expected to lose 75 million cases. ” A trend that seems to go well with the complexion of Bordeaux, the Council interprofessional wine Bordeaux pushing for the territory focuses on wines over € 5.
In spirits finally, the trend to premium is also present. “Whiskey is growing particularly well, especially Scottish and American whiskeys and, to a lesser extent, gin and tequila, which is broadly reflective of the trend towards premiumization with the fastest growing premium and top segments. And China will drive global growth in premium and premium spirits, together they should add another 30 million cases in these price segments, compared to a total net gain of 46 million cases worldwide, “said Vinexpo and IWSR, which also note “the power of the Asia-Pacific region and the role of Hong Kong as a major business center” in the development of wines and spirits.